Methodological Proposal to Determine the Mobile Reserve of Power Transformers Considering Risks and Uncertainties

In this article, it's proposed to analyze and present an alternative that allows to determine the transformation reserve in the electric transmission, through a methodology based on the Poisson distribution associated with the economic justification criterion; proposing it as a proposal to be applied in the planning processes of the expansion of the sub-transmission. One of the key issues in planning the expansion of the transmission system, is reliability and safety, which has recently been included in the regulation of transmission in Peru; Risk assessment is an effective instrument to help the decision process for the management of power transformers. There are few practical methodologies for evaluating spare transformers. In addition, such proposals do not necessarily take into account the costs that represent the system, either by under-sizing or over-sizing the reserve. According to the above, it is necessary to establish a methodology to balance the cost that would represent to make investments for the acquisition of the reserve transformers, and the benefits that would provide the reliability of the system against such purchases. Consequently, a methodology is proposed to determine the reserve of power transformers, considering risks and uncertainties, this proposal could contribute to the development of the planning of the expansion of the sub transmission in Peru.