Hydrological Modeling for Daily Step Flood Forecasts with a Semi Distributed Approach Using the GR4J Model-Camaná River Basin – Arequipa

The purpose of this research is to implement a precipitation-runoff model (GR4J) at a daily rate in the Camaná River Basin, from a semidistributed perspective (RS-MINERVE platform), adequately representing the average daily flows in periods of flooding [1]. According to the author, in this way an alternative is sought for the forecast of flows of maximum floods that will allow the issuance of early warnings in the event of the probable occurrence of extreme events, taking into account the thresholds or alert levels that are currently used in the river basin Camana [1]. For the implementation of the Simulation, the RS-Minerve platform was used, with the data between 1964 and 2014. It began in two stages: Calibration (1964-1983) and Validation (2008-2014) for the Hydrometric Stations of Pte., Pendant Sibayo, Pallca Huaruro and Huatiapa [1]. The modeling of the Precipitation-runoff process in the Camaná River Basin was modified, as well as being able to forecast the flows of maxima avenues in the presence of climate change and at a daily rate, using the GR4J Model and the historical information for the Calibration and Validation stages.