Exchange rate volatility and its impact on foreign trade: Evidence from Peru in a period of global and domestic turbulence (2019-2023)

Between 2019 and 2023, the Peruvian sol showed an accumulated nominal variation of approximately 12.9%, reflecting moderate depreciation influenced by both external and domestic factors, although in 2022 it appreciated by 4.6%, positioning itself as one of the most stable currencies in the region. The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of exchange rate volatility on Peru’s foreign trade during this period of global and domestic turbulence, employing a quantitative correlational design with secondary data from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) and the National Superintendence of Customs and Tax Administration (SUNAT), analyzed through regression models and statistical tests in SPSS. The results indicate that exchange rate variability explains 61.1% of changes in export volume, 49.8% in import volume, and 45.9% in terms of trade (all p < 0.01), while inflation and GDP also show significant associations with exports and imports, with R² values ranging from 24.5% to 60.4% (p < 0.01). These findings confirm that macroeconomic volatility, particularly exchange rate dynamics, significantly shapes trade performance. From a theoretical perspective, this study provides evidence from a primary-exporting economy, enriching the literature on exchange rate fluctuations in emerging markets, while from a practical standpoint, it underscores the importance of adopting economic and trade policies that mitigate external vulnerability, stabilize exchange rate fluctuations, and strengthen competitiveness. In conclusion, exchange rate volatility exerts a decisive influence on Peru’s foreign trade, reinforcing the need for integrated and sustainable policy measures to ensure stability and long-term growth.