Design of a Secure, Competitive, and Low-Emission Electricity Matrix for Peru by 2035

This study designs and evaluates a secure, competitive, and low-emission electricity mix for Peru by 2035. It develops a scenario-based modeling framework with reliability and emissions constraints, technology-specific costs, and hourly resource availability, and assesses outcomes with a composite Energy Triangle index that averages three equally weighted pillars: Environmental Sustainability, Security, and Equity and Competitiveness. The analysis compares the current system (2025) with a Transition Scenario (2035). Results indicate a structural shift toward renewables in hourly dispatch and annual shares: hydropower 54 % to 47 %, wind 8 % to 30 %, and solar 2 % to 13 %, while combined-cycle gas declines from 35 % to 10 %. The renewable share rises from 65 % to 90 %, and emissions intensity falls from 115.6 to 33.9kg CO₂/MWh. Security strengthens as the reserve margin increases from 77 % to 100 %. Equity and Competitiveness improve as the average marginal cost drops from 38.0 to 10.1 USD/MWh and the peak marginal cost declines from 164.7 to 23.0 USD/MWh. Overall, the Transition Scenario delivers balanced improvement across the Energy Triangle and supports an evidence-based pathway to a sustainable 2035 mix.