External debt exchange and education improvement in native communities of the central Peruvian jungle: Empirical evidence from an econometric model

This study analyzes the effects of external debt management—specifically debt-for-education swaps—on educational outcomes in native communities of the Central Peruvian Jungle. Based on cross-sectional data from 22 educational jurisdictions, the research applies a multivariate framework incorporating financial, institutional, and governance variables. Multiple linear regression models reveal that both the number of debt-financed educational projects and the volume of swapped debt are significantly associated with reductions in illiteracy and improvements in enrollment and completion rates. The analysis further indicates that institutional design plays a critical role: simplified contractual arrangements and higher perceived transparency correlate with better educational performance, whereas overly complex agreements tend to reduce program effectiveness. Although the model demonstrates explanatory strength regarding infrastructure and access, its predictive capacity is limited in the case of Intercultural Bilingual Education, suggesting the need for complementary cultural and pedagogical strategies. The findings underscore the strategic value of debt swaps as equity-oriented financing tools and contribute to broader debates on the role of fiscal instruments in advancing inclusive human capital development in structurally excluded regions.