Comparación del valor pronóstico de mortalidad del Score Child Pugh y los modelos de pronóstico de enfermedad hepática crónica en pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada del Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Perú

Vanessa Valenzuela Granados; Maria Salazar-Quiñones; Lester Cheng-Zárate; Alexander Malpica-Castillo; Jorge Huerta Mercado; Ray Ticse

Comparación del valor pronóstico de mortalidad del Score Child Pugh y los modelos de pronóstico de enfermedad hepática crónica en pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada del Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Perú

Translated title of the contribution: Comparison of the prognostic value of mortality Child Pugh Score and forecasting models of chronic liver disease in patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Peru

Vanessa Valenzuela Granados, Maria Salazar-Quiñones, Lester Cheng-Zárate, Alexander Malpica-Castillo, Jorge Huerta Mercado, Ray Ticse

Research output: Contribution to journal › Original Article › peer-review

5 Scopus citations

Abstract

INTRODUCTION: The assessment of prognosis is an essential part of the evaluation of all patients with liver cirrhosis. Currently continues to develop new models to optimize forecast accuracy mortality score is calculated by the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD).

OBJECTIVE: Compare the prognostic accuracy of hospital mortality and short-term mortality CTP, MELD and other models in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective descriptive study, comparison type of diagnostic test that included 84 patients. The score CTP, MELD and other models were calculated on the first day of hospitalization. The prognostic accuracy of mortality was assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUROCs) of score CTP, MELD and other models.

RESULTS: Hospital mortality and mortality in the short-term monitoring was 20 (23.8%) and 44 (52.4%), respectively. The AUROCs CTP, MELD, MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, RefitMELD and RefitMELD Na to predict hospital mortality was 0.4488, 0.5645, 0.5426, 0.5578, 0.5719, 0.5598 and 0.5754; and to predict short-term mortality was 0.5386, 0.5747, 0.5770, 0.5781, 0.5631, 0.5881 and 0.5693, respectively. By comparing each AUROCs of the CTP score, MELD and other models proved to be no better than the other (p>0.05).

CONCLUSION: This study has not shown the predictive utility of the CTP score, MELD and other models (MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit Refit MELD and MELD Na) to evaluate hospital mortality or short-term mortality in a sample of patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Cayetano Heredia.

Translated title of the contribution	Comparison of the prognostic value of mortality Child Pugh Score and forecasting models of chronic liver disease in patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Peru
Original language	Spanish
Pages (from-to)	307-312
Number of pages	6
Journal	Revista de gastroenterologia del Peru : organo oficial de la Sociedad de Gastroenterologia del Peru
Volume	35
Issue number	4
State	Indexed - 1 Oct 2015
Externally published	Yes

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Valenzuela Granados, V., Salazar-Quiñones, M., Cheng-Zárate, L., Malpica-Castillo, A., Huerta Mercado, J., & Ticse, R. (2015). Comparación del valor pronóstico de mortalidad del Score Child Pugh y los modelos de pronóstico de enfermedad hepática crónica en pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada del Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Perú. Revista de gastroenterologia del Peru : organo oficial de la Sociedad de Gastroenterologia del Peru, 35(4), 307-312.

Valenzuela Granados, Vanessa ; Salazar-Quiñones, Maria ; Cheng-Zárate, Lester et al. / Comparación del valor pronóstico de mortalidad del Score Child Pugh y los modelos de pronóstico de enfermedad hepática crónica en pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada del Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Perú. In: Revista de gastroenterologia del Peru : organo oficial de la Sociedad de Gastroenterologia del Peru. 2015 ; Vol. 35, No. 4. pp. 307-312.

@article{0518240de83d4caa87201260003f7fce,

title = "Comparaci{\'o}n del valor pron{\'o}stico de mortalidad del Score Child Pugh y los modelos de pron{\'o}stico de enfermedad hep{\'a}tica cr{\'o}nica en pacientes con cirrosis hep{\'a}tica descompensada del Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Per{\'u}",

abstract = "INTRODUCTION: The assessment of prognosis is an essential part of the evaluation of all patients with liver cirrhosis. Currently continues to develop new models to optimize forecast accuracy mortality score is calculated by the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD).OBJECTIVE: Compare the prognostic accuracy of hospital mortality and short-term mortality CTP, MELD and other models in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective descriptive study, comparison type of diagnostic test that included 84 patients. The score CTP, MELD and other models were calculated on the first day of hospitalization. The prognostic accuracy of mortality was assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUROCs) of score CTP, MELD and other models.RESULTS: Hospital mortality and mortality in the short-term monitoring was 20 (23.8%) and 44 (52.4%), respectively. The AUROCs CTP, MELD, MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, RefitMELD and RefitMELD Na to predict hospital mortality was 0.4488, 0.5645, 0.5426, 0.5578, 0.5719, 0.5598 and 0.5754; and to predict short-term mortality was 0.5386, 0.5747, 0.5770, 0.5781, 0.5631, 0.5881 and 0.5693, respectively. By comparing each AUROCs of the CTP score, MELD and other models proved to be no better than the other (p>0.05).CONCLUSION: This study has not shown the predictive utility of the CTP score, MELD and other models (MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit Refit MELD and MELD Na) to evaluate hospital mortality or short-term mortality in a sample of patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Cayetano Heredia.",

author = "{Valenzuela Granados}, Vanessa and Maria Salazar-Qui{\~n}ones and Lester Cheng-Z{\'a}rate and Alexander Malpica-Castillo and {Huerta Mercado}, Jorge and Ray Ticse",

year = "2015",

month = oct,

day = "1",

language = "Espa{\~n}ol",

volume = "35",

pages = "307--312",

journal = "Revista de gastroenterologia del Peru : organo oficial de la Sociedad de Gastroenterologia del Peru",

issn = "1022-5129",

publisher = "Sociedad de Gastroenterologia del Peru",

number = "4",

}

Valenzuela Granados, V, Salazar-Quiñones, M, Cheng-Zárate, L, Malpica-Castillo, A, Huerta Mercado, J & Ticse, R 2015, 'Comparación del valor pronóstico de mortalidad del Score Child Pugh y los modelos de pronóstico de enfermedad hepática crónica en pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada del Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Perú', Revista de gastroenterologia del Peru : organo oficial de la Sociedad de Gastroenterologia del Peru, vol. 35, no. 4, pp. 307-312.

Comparación del valor pronóstico de mortalidad del Score Child Pugh y los modelos de pronóstico de enfermedad hepática crónica en pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada del Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Perú. / Valenzuela Granados, Vanessa; Salazar-Quiñones, Maria; Cheng-Zárate, Lester et al.
In: Revista de gastroenterologia del Peru : organo oficial de la Sociedad de Gastroenterologia del Peru, Vol. 35, No. 4, 01.10.2015, p. 307-312.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Original Article › peer-review

TY - JOUR

T1 - Comparación del valor pronóstico de mortalidad del Score Child Pugh y los modelos de pronóstico de enfermedad hepática crónica en pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada del Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Perú

AU - Valenzuela Granados, Vanessa

AU - Salazar-Quiñones, Maria

AU - Cheng-Zárate, Lester

AU - Malpica-Castillo, Alexander

AU - Huerta Mercado, Jorge

AU - Ticse, Ray

PY - 2015/10/1

Y1 - 2015/10/1

N2 - INTRODUCTION: The assessment of prognosis is an essential part of the evaluation of all patients with liver cirrhosis. Currently continues to develop new models to optimize forecast accuracy mortality score is calculated by the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD).OBJECTIVE: Compare the prognostic accuracy of hospital mortality and short-term mortality CTP, MELD and other models in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective descriptive study, comparison type of diagnostic test that included 84 patients. The score CTP, MELD and other models were calculated on the first day of hospitalization. The prognostic accuracy of mortality was assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUROCs) of score CTP, MELD and other models.RESULTS: Hospital mortality and mortality in the short-term monitoring was 20 (23.8%) and 44 (52.4%), respectively. The AUROCs CTP, MELD, MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, RefitMELD and RefitMELD Na to predict hospital mortality was 0.4488, 0.5645, 0.5426, 0.5578, 0.5719, 0.5598 and 0.5754; and to predict short-term mortality was 0.5386, 0.5747, 0.5770, 0.5781, 0.5631, 0.5881 and 0.5693, respectively. By comparing each AUROCs of the CTP score, MELD and other models proved to be no better than the other (p>0.05).CONCLUSION: This study has not shown the predictive utility of the CTP score, MELD and other models (MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit Refit MELD and MELD Na) to evaluate hospital mortality or short-term mortality in a sample of patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Cayetano Heredia.

AB - INTRODUCTION: The assessment of prognosis is an essential part of the evaluation of all patients with liver cirrhosis. Currently continues to develop new models to optimize forecast accuracy mortality score is calculated by the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD).OBJECTIVE: Compare the prognostic accuracy of hospital mortality and short-term mortality CTP, MELD and other models in patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis.MATERIAL AND METHODS: Prospective descriptive study, comparison type of diagnostic test that included 84 patients. The score CTP, MELD and other models were calculated on the first day of hospitalization. The prognostic accuracy of mortality was assessed by the area under the ROC curve (AUROCs) of score CTP, MELD and other models.RESULTS: Hospital mortality and mortality in the short-term monitoring was 20 (23.8%) and 44 (52.4%), respectively. The AUROCs CTP, MELD, MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, RefitMELD and RefitMELD Na to predict hospital mortality was 0.4488, 0.5645, 0.5426, 0.5578, 0.5719, 0.5598 and 0.5754; and to predict short-term mortality was 0.5386, 0.5747, 0.5770, 0.5781, 0.5631, 0.5881 and 0.5693, respectively. By comparing each AUROCs of the CTP score, MELD and other models proved to be no better than the other (p>0.05).CONCLUSION: This study has not shown the predictive utility of the CTP score, MELD and other models (MELD Na, MESO, iMELD, Refit Refit MELD and MELD Na) to evaluate hospital mortality or short-term mortality in a sample of patients with decompensated cirrhosis of the Hospital Cayetano Heredia.

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M3 - Artículo original

C2 - 26802883

AN - SCOPUS:85011729118

SN - 1022-5129

VL - 35

SP - 307

EP - 312

JO - Revista de gastroenterologia del Peru : organo oficial de la Sociedad de Gastroenterologia del Peru

JF - Revista de gastroenterologia del Peru : organo oficial de la Sociedad de Gastroenterologia del Peru

IS - 4

ER -

Valenzuela Granados V, Salazar-Quiñones M, Cheng-Zárate L, Malpica-Castillo A, Huerta Mercado J, Ticse R. Comparación del valor pronóstico de mortalidad del Score Child Pugh y los modelos de pronóstico de enfermedad hepática crónica en pacientes con cirrosis hepática descompensada del Hospital Nacional Cayetano Heredia, Lima-Perú. Revista de gastroenterologia del Peru : organo oficial de la Sociedad de Gastroenterologia del Peru. 2015 Oct 1;35(4):307-312.